Sunderland fans of a certain vintage may have noticed the parallels with January in the year 2000 and where the club finds itself now, some 25 years later.
Immediately prior to the turn of the new century, whilst some were distracted by aeroplanes potentially falling from the sky, under Peter Reid, the Black Cats reached the dizzying heights of third in the Premier League. But by early January they had dropped just slightly to fourth.
For the Rokemen this was a ‘sliding doors’ moment if ever there was one. Could then owner Bob Murray invest and give Reid every opportunity to have a really exceptional season, building upon the good work up until that point? Or, would the hierarchy’s hands be grasped tight to the purse strings, stifling ambition as a result?
The answer?
You may recall, striker, Milton Núñez signed for around £1.6mil along with Kevin Kilbane (£2.5mil) and a (still excellent) seventh place finish was eventually secured. In fairness, according to Transfermarkt.co.uk, €16.70m was spent across the two windows during the ’99/00 campaign with €12.10m being recouped by player sales, resulting in a deficit of €4.60m. Back then, of course, there was perhaps more context.
Yet, based upon the opportunity that was presenting itself, for any club looking to really push on in that moment, the investment was clearly not sufficient. Therefore, we simply cannot look back upon that period, without also thinking – what might have been.
Parallels with present
Now, here we are again, early January – admittedly one division lower – surprising many by being fourth in the league table, just three points from top and at a similar crucial crossroads.
Which way will the ownership go this time? Can any lessons be learned from the year 2000? Recent press reports could suggest so.
But first, If recent history tells us anything, obscene amounts of cash will not be thrown around this month. Nor is any sensible supporter demanding it. Fans do not want the Black Cats to place themselves in financial difficulty through overspending. Albeit, it is worth reminding ourselves that according to the last available club accounts, our wage control was ‘second-best’ in the Championship only behind Rotherham United’s 66%. This is clearly prudent management financially, but in reality, we know higher wages alongside transfer fees, nearly always means a better chance of promotion. Looking at this another way, Sunderland were 23rd out of 24 teams in terms of wages to revenue spent.
Blended approach
To achieve the results we have thus far with this financial approach is remarkable and should be commended. Régis Le Bris and co. are certainly bucking the trend. As for balance, it should also be recognised that the specific methodologies underpinning the club’s recruitment policy (including profile of players etc) have never secured promotion to the Premier League for any side (Brentford and Bournemouth had older squads).
Clearly, there is always a first time for everything.
The impossible is only considered so until it is shown to be otherwise. But, is now the moment a more blended approach could be adopted – one that continues to find young, unpolished gems for little money, brings in experienced free agents/loans but also invests more on permanent contracts in a way that better aligns with the club’s aspirations and that proven track record for promotion?
No parachutes provided
It is not possible to compete financially with parachute clubs. We understand this. Although, Sunderland AFC has the highest broadcast income outside of parachute clubs, and 20th highest matchday income in England, with the 7th highest revenue in Championship at last count too. Then consider it was only outperforming Rotherham Utd as a percentage of wages to revenue.
There is clearly plenty of headroom to work with, in respect of FFP.
We can therefore applaud the very good work on and off the field on Wearside, whilst at the same time acknowledging it does seem evident there have been very strict self-imposed financial parameters thus far. As such, without advocating for overstretching, there is now surely a better balance to be struck here between extravagant spending and prudent budgeting, to maximise that chance of reaching the promise land of the Premier League once again.
Player sales are the hope for the next phase of model kicking into gear as Ross Stewart as well as Isaac Lihadji and Jack Clarke have all now left with sizeable fees in recent times. True, last summer’s transfer window was a solid one. It addressed several prevailing gaps in the squad and in loanee Wilson Isidor perhaps also solved that longstanding striker conundrum. Yet, despite talk of €11mil deadline day bids for Lorient’s Mo Bamba, the window itself did not lay down a significant marker. Of course the counter point to this is look where we are now – there was perhaps no need for one you may reasonably argue.
Sunderland find themselves competing for automatic promotion after 28 games – a tremendous achievement. Once again, those responsible should be applauded…
Enzo Le Fée
Yet, one cannot help but feel Sunderland AFC should now be in a position – both in respect of the model and league table – to implement the next phase of the recruitment strategy. Opportunities like this – as noted above – do not come around often enough.
Happily then, there are players currently linked with Sunderland who would absolutely fit that bill, if deals can be done. Sporting Director Kristjaan Speakman is gearing up to one his more busier periods of the year and negotiations with agents will be – we hope – now fully underway. One such discussion is presumably currently with Italian giants Roma and the agent of midfielder Enzo Le Fée, if press reports are to believed. It was only recently that Le Fée found himself moving from the French top-flight to Serie A for €23mil.
Crucially the 24-year-old had his best season (2022/23) playing under Le Bris at Lorient with five goals and five assists in 35 Ligue 1 appearances. Interestingly he also, averaged 0.2 expected assists per 90 minutes (just behind Mbappé’s 0.23) and was ranked 6th in Ligue 1 for chances created as well as 10th in Ligue 1 for defensive actions.
When journalist Fabrizio Romano states the deal is happening, then that typically means it is and he has the kind of profile who would signify to all concerned that Sunderland’s intention is to not just hope for promotion, possibly via Play-offs. But, to grab hold of it by the shirt-collar and take it automatically.
Le Fée is not the only player linked who would be considered a step up. Rennes midfielder Glen Kamara, former Leicester City striker, Kelechi Iheanacho as well as Ben Brereton Diaz are three others of note. In the event these names are examples of the sorts of shop windows Speakman is now allowed to look through then things may be beginning to look up.
At long last.
Of course, we have been down this road before. Window shopping and press reports are one thing. Actually buying/securing the deal are another. Indeed, transfers sagas and Sunderland are no strangers. Press links do not equate to sure things – even reliable ones – and there are plenty of examples of similar disappointments on Wearside previously. Too many to mention here.
This should be the moment…
Either way, the chance that Sunderland now has must surely be seized upon by the owners. The board, the backroom staff and the squad must all see – as the fans do – that these opportunities are not always there for the taking, despite all the hard work. Whilst we can describe this season as being a success so far, without stating the obvious the Championship campaign is longer than 28 matches. We only need to look at how last season imploded to fully understand this.
In order to really give ones self the best fighting chance of success, much like Ipswich Town in the winter transfer window last season, there needs to be – as the cliche goes – a ‘statement’ signing. Not one secured by lavish overspending but nonetheless one that signals to supporters, the opposition and even to the club itself, that this is the moment when Sunderland’s recruitment model clicks into a higher gear.
Everyone can feel there is a significant pathway opening up in front of us and unlike Peter Reid, surely every chance should be given to Le Bris to secure that special finish to the season.
Perhaps with Enzo Le Fée that chance could be imminent…
Photo by Mark Fletcher via MI News & Sport/Alamy
