Like a damp sparkler tossed in a dirty puddle outside a Bargain Booze in early November – for Sunderland AFC, last season fizzled out in pathetic fashion.
As such, supporters may be forgiven for wondering why they should muster a degree of excitement now the Championship campaign is once again hurtling towards us.
Certainly, following a quick gallop through a checklist of some of the arguably more pernicious matters that have recently emerged on Wearside, you may begin to understand why, for some fans, concerns exist:
- No strikers capable of scoring goals despite those responsible taking hundreds of years to find one. (Exaggerations aside, the last time the Black Cats signed a centre-forward on a permanent basis capable of scoring goals consistently the country was amidst its third national lockdown during the Coronavirus pandemic)
- A squad surely still bereft of the sort of experience you need at this level to guarantee it can regularly compete for promotion
- A recruitment philosophy lacking evidence it can secure promotion to the Premier League
- A Head Coach with no experience of the Championship.
- And, especially since the Black Cats Bar/Derby Day debacle, an ownership group who are (understandably) beginning to receive more and more questions from supporters.
Yet, with a single malt in one hand and – would you look at that – a single malt in the other, this scribbler is beginning to muster some vague sense of optimism.
Well, is it optimism? Or, is it something which could be more accurately described as a state simply different to negativity?
Whatever it is – is it misplaced?
If it is anything other than abject fear at the prospect of another dismal end to the season then very probably. More than likely in fact. As referenced above, in it’s current form, the club’s ‘model’ offers no evidence promotion to the Premier League can be secured. We simply cannot get around that. For further reading on this point check out Founded1879’s earlier related piece.
So close
Upon scrutinising the current squad however, the prevailing gaps within it are glaringly obvious. Therefore, the real vexation here is the club seem so close to getting it right. It just needs tweaks! It is tantalising in fact just how close to being a real promotion contender the group is. Three or four more experienced players in key roles and with a good wind we surely have a side easily capable of a consistent top six push. Easily.
Let us be very clear – we will not win the league with 100 points despite the recent very welcomed positivity from Gabriel Sutton. But – brace yourself – there are some compelling arguments based on statistics that show the Black Cats could again find themselves in and around the play-offs come May 2025. Whether the squad is built to push on further is another matter. Arguably not yet. But, for most, that surely would constitute success.
So, what are these arguments for Sunderland finishing within the play-offs? Let us explore some stats to help inform where this forthcoming campaign could take us.
Case for the defence?
Last season, Sunderland’s first choice centre-back partnership of Luke O’Nien and Dan Ballard helped the team secure the 5th best defensive record in the league, conceding an average of just 1.17 goals per game. Although Ballard has missed most of pre-season he has just inked a new contract extension which hopefully ties him to Wearside until the end of 2027/28 season.
At 89.7% his passing accuracy is also the highest of anyone at the club. With his own impressive figure of 88.5%, Luke O’Nien is not far behind him.
Doubts will always remain around O’Nien being in the heart of central defence. Those concerns are understood. There are clearly times during matches when he just does not seem like a natural centre-back (possibly because he is not). Yet, evidence does suggest that the aforementioned pairing, with Trai Hume and Dennis Cirkin alongside them, could sustain a top six push. Simply put, the data shows it to be so. Plus, for a Head Coach who appears to favour a ‘play out from the back’ mentality here, Messrs O’Nien and Ballard would appear ideally placed to deploy Régis Le Bris’ methods.
Before we move on just a quick word on the full-backs and goalkeeper. Hume, with an average of 3.36 successful tackles per 90 minutes, in that right-back role, outperforms 97% of those in his position across the second tier. Similarly, Cirkin (assuming he remains fit) offers a real goal threat from left-back, something which needs to be shared around more of the group this term. Anthony Patterson offers a save percentage per 90mins of 69.2% which ranks him quite favourably against his peers. He is extremely reliable at this level.
Possession is 9/10 of the law
If we are looking for further positives, another statistic which is worthy of mention here is ‘possession’. With an average of 55% across the campaign Sunderland AFC ranked 4th in the Championship in 2023/24.
Again, for Le Bris, who appears intent on possession-based football, played out from the back with a high press – he has potentially found a group of players easily capable of delivering on this.
Shots on goal
A further hope of finishing in the play-offs is based on the fact that the Black Cats registered 7th in respect of the shots on goal per game metric last term. If ever there was an argument for saying the squad is close to play-offs it is this. The Rokemen average 4.85 shots on goal and it surely proves that with a proven striker or two within the ranks, it could begin to convert more of those chances thus firing the team further up the table. Certainly the squad is already capable of getting into good positions in order to pepper the opposition goalkeepers. Unfortunately, it is just currently without the ability to get the ball beyond them regularly enough to assure itself of success.
Field Tilt
For those unfamiliar, Field Tilt is the stat which essentially takes account of a team’s share of possession in a key area – the final third. It also looks at crucial touches and passes in that position on the pitch.
In short, it helps measure which side has been able to take the attack to the opponent. But, crucially whilst having the ball and then retaining possession.
Measured up against this metric, Sunderland AFC ranked an impressive 4th in the Championship in the 2023/24 season with an average of 55.7%.
Again, for a Head Coach intent on delivering a high press – and if nothing else the the club’s pre-season games taught us this will be the case – this is another positive sign for the season ahead.
The Le Bris factor
Sunderland AFC’s squad has for too long required strengthening in vital areas. However, it surely underperformed under Michael Beale and Michael Dodds. Can it fair any better now? The new Head Coach is unfamiliar with the Championship. That is clear. Yet, so were Sheffield Wednesday’s, Danny Röhl and Kieran McKenna at Ipswich. It is not necessarily a factor which should automatically place Le Bris at a huge disadvantage.
The Frenchman brings with him sufficient credibility to offer supporters confidence. Yet, relegating his former side Lorient naturally cannot help but also bring cause for doubt. For what it’s worth, his great work developing young players in France and his first season in charge of Les Merlus indicate, given the right tools, he is capable of doing well on Wearside. Certainly in context of competing in the second tier, there are more reasons to be hopeful around Le Bris as Head Coach than concerned. The opportunity to build on some recently acquired positive momentum around the club cannot harm his chances either.
Conclusion
A lot still rides on what happens during the remainder of the transfer window. Sporting Director, Kristjaan Speakman et al must address the prevailing gaps in the squad in order to bolster the club’s chances of success and help build upon, as outlined above, some of the positive steps already taken on Wearside in recent times.
Depending upon who departs – two capable strikers, another centre-back and a specialist in that defensive midfield role would seem essential to help Le Bris and his side improve upon last season’s disappointment.
Retaining the services of Jack Clarke, however unlikely this may seem right now, would also go along way to securing a top six finish.
All in all, based on hard data, there is indeed evidence to suggest that come the end of the season – with good recruitment in key areas – the play-offs are achievable for Sunderland AFC. Will it turn out that way? It is over to those responsible to ensure it happens. We can only hope it does.
