It is 31st January 2021. A Scottish striker – that we have not heard of – has just signed for Sunderland AFC on an initial two year contract. If we cast our minds back there was little fanfare upon his arrival. Perhaps even less expectation. Yet, Ross Stewart, plucked from relative obscurity north of the border became Sunderland’s talisman and was considered the quintessential signing under the club’s new recruitment ‘model’.
That of course does not tell the whole story. Behind the scenes much of the current recruitment personnel and methods were not yet fully in place. For example, Stuart Harvey, Head of Player Recruitment and James Young, as Head of Analysis and Data (since left) were not yet in situ. It is all of the elements brought together, collectively, by that team which has since solidified Sunderland AFC’s current recruitment processes.
“Ross was first flagged by a very close friend of mine, Brian McDermott,” Lee Johnson (then Head Coach) explained to the Echo in September 2021. “I was very close to taking a Championship job at the time and Brian was someone I wanted to work very closely with. We were talking about potential players that we might like to take to that club at that time. We had a good watch of him, for another club of course, and so that put him very much on my radar. Then of course we go through the Sunderland process so at that point discussions start with Kristjaan Speakman…”
So then, it would not be wholly accurate to say Stewart was a product of the approach the club have now fully adopted. Yet, the important thing to note here is however he arrived on Wearside, the fact of the matter remains those responsible for his recruitment got it right.
They very much got it right indeed.
“It’s Ross Stewart!”
Stewart’s Wembley goal to secure the club’s return to the second tier has become an abiding memory for Sunderland supporters who witnessed it. That moment helped carry the club forward on a wave of elation which only recently somewhat ran aground (albeit momentum appears to be building again).
However, in football, knowing when to sell a player is just as important as knowing when to buy one. And, from a purely financial perspective, one could argue Sporting Director, Kristjaan Speakman, sanctioned the sale of Stewart at the ‘optimum’ time too. Certainly Stewart’s persistent injury woes and lack of inclusion in Southampton’s current pre-season preparations indicate those medical concerns are not going away any time soon.
Three And A Half Years
With all that said and despite the obvious good work that led to the Scot excelling on Wearside, that date in January 2021 referenced above is memorable for another reason – it is now just over three and a half years since Sunderland AFC signed a striker – on a permanent basis – capable of scoring goals consistently.
On the face of it, this is wild. But is there context?
We should look to Ellis Simms as someone who did well during his time here as an example of the club not requiring a permanent striker in order to score goals. It is only fair to recognise this. Simms joined on loan on 29th July 2022. Although his loan commenced on 16th August 2021, Nathan Broadhead would also fall into this category. Since that time, whichever way you square it though, in respect of signing strikers capable of putting the ball in the back of the net – the Black Cats have regressed.
If any doubt on this point lingers – and surely it does not – in Luis Hemir, Eliezer Mayenda and Nazariy Rusyn, the three centre forwards currently in the squad, managed just two goals and one assist between them during the entirety of last season across their combined 46 matches. Mayenda only managed limited loan appearances for Hibs last term but has shown more during pre-season back on Wearside. Chelsea’s Mason Burstow snagged a solitary goal before returning to his parent club but did little else of note.
The Data
In comparison, 21-year-old Jay Stansfield managed 12 goals and two assists in his 43 matches (3353 mins played) on loan to a struggling Birmingham. At 21 years of age another comparison would be that of Sinclair Armstrong now of Bristol City. His 39 appearances (1780 mins) for QPR last term saw him bag 44 shots, 3 goals with an xG of 6.07. If we stand those stats up against those of Hemir, with admittedly fewer appearances, the Portuguese striker only had 11 shots across the season during his 23 games (496 mins), with an xG of 1.67.
Are we comparing apples with apples? Possibly not but the bottom line is the performances and the goals did not come for Sunderland strikers last campaign.
Explanations And Mitigations
Away from the detail and perhaps another source of frustration for many supporters – this one included – was the way in which Speakman often hand-waived this longstanding striker predicament away as being somehow part of the plan. Who could forget such ‘hits’ as “That focal point you refer to is not a big requirement for the team we’re building and developing.” Alongside the seminal, “Joe Gelhardt, for example, is totally aligned with how we’re trying to play in terms of what we need for a number nine.” The classic, “The question is always going to be, we can go out tomorrow and get a No 9 but if he doesn’t get in front of Leon (Dajaku)…there’s absolutely zero point in having him.” another gem. All were comments which even at the time seemed ill-conceived. But, with the benefit of hindsight seem rather frankly ludicrous.
Although it may read like it in places, this is not about digging anyone out. Instead, it is a reminder that there has been some great work from the recruitment team which returned the club to the Championship. Strikers have been secured under this regime. They have scored goals. But, it is surely only fair to point out there has also now been a prevailing gap in the squad which has dragged on for far too long.
It must be addressed.
The Positives
And on that point, there may be some good news. Sunderland AFC appear to now recognise it.
Thus far during the summer transfer window the club have been linked with strikers who have proven experience. That has to be very much welcomed as a concept. Whether the often mooted Alexandre Mendy from SM Caen or Ike Ugbo from Troyes join remains to be seen. Yet, both the profile of those now on the Rokermen’s radar and indeed reported comments from majority shareholder, Kyril Louis-Dreyfus himself, at the launch of the new club store in July 2024, indicate there is some recognition related matters need more urgent attention.
On the subject of Mendy, he has seemingly recently reiterated his wish is to leave Ligue 2’s SM Caen during the summer. French news outlet Foot Mercato has carried a statement reportedly attributed to the league’s top scorer. It reads, in part, “Today in my mind I am no longer here because since my last match and my farewell to the Ornano stadium, I do not want to cheat my partners, the club, the supporters. There is no clash, I just count on the word and the commitments of my leaders and I have complete confidence in them. I repeat, I am at the disposal of the new management to explain my choice and I also take advantage of this moment to thank the supporters.”
Marry these comments up with Mendy’s earlier reported remarks around wishing to join Sunderland AFC and it seems that a deal could be only a matter of time. That said, we have been here before. Speakman stated back in January 2024, “We went right down to the wire on three or four of them (strikers), and then at the end of it we knew it wasn’t to be for various reasons, availability being one of them. Ultimately finance gets drawn into it and there is a choice if you want to spend more and more but there becomes a point where you have to evaluate that against the value and on this occasion that didn’t come through for us.”
This is a position which perhaps is understandable over a transfer window or two. It no longer becomes as acceptable over three, four, five, six and seven.
As a result, getting the striker situation right this summer feels just as fundamental to the current ownership group’s tenure as it does to the club’s attempts to find a more proven centre-forward.
Broader Than Just Strikers
Once again, it is recognised that there have been some fantastic moments since 2021. The current ownership group are largely responsible for them. But it has not been all plane sailing and supporters’ concerns, caused by several decisions taken by the board since Louis-Dreyfus’ arrival, will surely not be abated by another transfer window failing to deliver a competent striker.
Founded1879 recently caught up with James Copley, Senior Digital Journalist with the Sunderland Echo to talk about some of the key moments of the Kyril Louis-Dreyfus era so far.
Copley explains the critical events since 2021, “Kyril Louis-Dreyfus’ initial takeover of Sunderland provided one of the moments that certainly set the tone for part of his ownership. He was afforded a hero’s welcome and was seen as the antithesis of Stewart Donald and Charlie Methven. However, not everything was as it had initially seemed. It was later revealed that Louis-Dreyfus was not a majority shareholder in the sense that the former Madrox trio – Methven Donald and Sartori – still owned more of the club combined. This created some distrust between Sunderland fans and Louis-Dreyfus that you could argue still lingers to this day. Louis-Dreyfus action after this, however, in buying out Donald and Methevn over time remains significant too.”
Bringing ourselves more up to date, Copley highlights more recent supporter concerns, “That mistrust, though, would rear its ugly head during the Newcastle United ticketing debacle and Black Cars Bar horror show. How much did Sunderland’s owner know? Why was it allowed to happen? Why wasn’t it stopped before hand? These are all questions we will probably never get a full answer to. For some supporters, that period of time remains understandably unforgivable.”
The Successes
The Echo’s SAFC writer reminds us of the successes, “But on the positive side of things there has been promotion from the Championship and the implementation of a football strategy that while dividing opinion and clearly possessing some flaws, has allowed Sunderland to reboot and stabilise as a second-tier club following four seasons in League One. The challenge is now to show sufficient backing to ensure Sunderland return to the top-flight. Investment in the Academy of Light and in the Stadium of Light has gone someway to elevating fears that Louis-Dreyfus is in it just to make money.”
For some supporters there has been sufficient positives to counterbalance the negatives. That opinion is respected. Yet, against a backdrop of a fanbase beginning to question the ownership more and more, another transfer window failing to deliver a capable striker could prove not just another key moment of the Louis-Dreyfus era but it may define it entirely.
Will it become one which failed to provide all the tools necessary to achieve promotion? Or one that eventually delivered what was needed on the pitch.
After all – a striker who can score goals in the Championship should not be a luxury for Sunderland AFC. After three and a half years, multiple transfer windows – and if the Black Cats are to secure a return to the Premier League – it is now simply a must.
